That is the objective of a paper by Yang et al. (2022) out in Well being Economics. They first present a pleasant evaluation of the literature and divide the methodologies round threat taking into sort varieties. I briefly summarize that literature under.
Direct strategies. These strategies might ask people about their angle towards threat or chance of participating in dangerous behaviors. A paper by Dohmen et al. (2011) confirmed that this direct query offers estimates of threat desire which are helpful for making predictions about people’ precise willingness to take dangers. This direct strategy is pretty simple to implement inside a survey.
Oblique strategies. These approaches usually take the type of a lottery. Holt and Laury (2002) measured threat preferences this manner over monetary outcomes; Gneezy and Potters (1998) use lotteries to take a look at myopic loss aversion, and Eckel and Grossman (1998) take a look at variations in threat preferences throughout women and men. Nevertheless, estimates of monetary threat preferences have been proven to be poor predictors of threat preferences over well being behaviors (see Anderson and Mellor 2008; Szrek et al. 2012). Nevertheless various research have applied approaches to look at threat preferences over well being states:
- Arrieta et al. (2017) makes use of a Holt and Laury fashion strategy however with completely different distributions over survival length (see determine under)
- Attema et al. (2013) exams whether or not survival distributions matter by way of whether or not they’re framed as absolute ranges in comparison with good points and losses over anticipated survival (it seems persons are threat averse over survival for each good points and losses).
- Galizzi et al. (2016) examines threat and time preferences between sufferers and physicians, discovering that physicians low cost future outcomes much less closely than sufferers, however physicians and sufferers have related threat preferences. The Galizzi use a variant of the Holt and Laury a number of value record strategy the place the outcomes are days alive and in full well being.
- Krieger and Mayrhofer (2012) study affected person preferences over well being states (i.e., ailing vs. not ailing) and financial outcomes incorporating each threat aversion and prudence. They discover “risk-averse and prudent habits in medical selections, which scale back the (common) therapy threshold by 41% relative to threat neutrality (from 50.0% to 29.3% prevalence price). Danger aversion accounts for 3/4 of this impact, prudence for 1/4.”
- Rouyard et al. (2018) makes use of the Attema et al. (2013) semi-parametric utility elicitation utilizing certainty equal over binary prospects involving life length.
- van der Pol and Ruggeri (2008) discover that people “tended to be threat averse with respect to the gamble involving threat of rapid loss of life and threat searching for with respect to the opposite well being gambles”. A follow-up examine Ruggeri and van der Pol (2012) finds related outcomes.
The Yang et al. paper continues by inspecting threat preferences over well being states and threat preferences over dangerous habits utilizing a survey strategy. The direct methodology is, properly, direct. It asks:
How would you price your willingness to take dangers along with your well being? Please write a quantity
between 0 and 10 within the field under, the place 0 means ‘Under no circumstances ready to take dangers’ and 10 means ‘Absolutely ready to take dangers’.”
Oblique elicitation of threat preferences is predicated on a normal gamble strategy of 1 possibility being dangerous of being in good vs. unhealthy well being and the opposite giving a sure final result of mediocre well being.
The authors additionally intention to validate these threat preferences by way of how properly they’re correlated with dangerous habits. Dangerous habits outcomes are outlined as smoking standing/common smoker; frequency of consuming 5 or extra alcoholic drinks; and non-adherence taking the total course of a drugs . Utilizing each direct and oblique approaches, they discover that:
…threat preferences elicited utilizing the direct strategy can higher predict health-related dangerous habits than these elicited utilizing the oblique strategy.
This discovering shouldn’t be shocking because the subjects lined within the direct strategy are extra intently correlated with the dangerous behaviors analyzed. Additional, whereas threat preferences do in fact play a component in dangerous behaviors, so does the utility of such behaviors. It is rather attainable that threat preferences over well being states are correlated indirectly with utility over threat behaviors. As an illustration, threat averse people could also be usually cautious folks, however might get pleasure from dangerous habits (e.g., consuming or smoking) as a stress launch. Alternatively, threat averse folks could possibly be much less prone to take a full course of a drugs if they’re threat averse over the unwanted side effects. Thus, the discovering that direct elicitation higher predicts dangerous habits isn’t a surprise, but it surely doesn’t present that the oblique methodology shouldn’t be higher for measuring threat preferences over well being states. Extra analysis on this matter is actually wanted.
Arrieta et al. (2017) strategy
Galizzi et al. (2016) strategy
Rouyard et al. (2018) strategy
Yang et al. (2022) Strategy